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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-10T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29134/-1
CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-02-11T13:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 810
Longitude (deg): W010
Latitude (deg): N18
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: Focused on bulk material to NW. Arrival forecast faster than enlil indicates due to poor background conditions after CME arrival on 11 Feb and additional influence of fast partial halo shock.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 18.80 hour(s)
Difference: -13.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-02-12T06:50Z

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